Saturday 15 December 2018 12:51, UK
Before losing narrowly to the Indianapolis Colts 24-21 last Sunday, the Houston Texans had gone on a nine-game winning streak – the best in franchise history.
A team doesn't win nine games in a row and not get mentioned in Super Bowl talks, so why should it be any different for the Texans? They are the perfect mix of a team capable of winning now, but also in the future. Houston have a young superstar quarterback in Deshaun Watson, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has perhaps the best hands in the league, and their defensive line is frighteningly good.
Bill O'Brien's side currently boasts a 9-4 record, ranking them as the third seed in the AFC behind the Kansas City Chiefs (11-3) and the New England Patriots (also 9-4). In their last three games, the Texans travel to the New York Jets and Philadelphia Eagles before finishing up at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars. They should walk all over the Jets in theory, but the other two might not be as straight forward.
As of now, it looks as if the Texans will be finishing as the third seed, or potentially the second seed if they can win one more game than the Patriots, due to their head-to-head record. The Patriots travel to Pennsylvania to take on the Steelers this Sunday before finishing up at home to the Jets and Bills. So it'll be a tough order for the Texans to get themselves a first-round bye in the playoffs.
If they do not get a bye, the Texans would have it all to do, as they'd be taking on one of the Los Angeles Chargers, Pittsburgh Steelers or Baltimore Ravens during the Wildcard round - if the playoff teams were to stay as they are now.
The easiest possible route to the Super Bowl for the Texans based on projected rankings would look like this:
Wildcard Round - Baltimore Ravens
Divisional Round - New England Patriots
AFC Conference Championship - Los Angeles Chargers
Super Bowl LIII - Minnesota Vikings
The hardest possible route to the Super Bowl for the Texans based on projected rankings would look like this:
Wildcard Round - Los Angeles Chargers
Divisional Round - New England Patriots
AFC Conference Championship - Kansas City Chiefs
Super Bowl LIII - New Orleans Saints
Not many teams are well equipped enough to stand a chance at either of those challenges, but the Texans are one of the few that may just stand a chance.
Their defensive line is run primarily by four-time Pro Bowler, J.J. Watt, who was the first player in NFL history to record two 20+ sack seasons (in 2012 and 2014). He leads the team this season with 12.5 sacks, while Jadeveon Clowney is in second place on seven. The impact Watt brings to the team is like no other defensive player in the league. While Watt was injured for the majority of the 2016 and 2017 seasons, the Texans sacked the opposing quarterbacks 31 and 32 times that season, respectively. With three games to go in the 2018 season, the Texans have 36, ranking them 11th in the NFL.
The return of Watt has also helped to improve the performances of his defensive team-mates. While opposing offensive lines are focusing on containing Watt, some of the Texans' other defensive gems such as Clowney and Whitney Mercilus are forgotten about, allowing them to torture quarterbacks even more. Nose Tackle D.J. Reader is another name to watch out for, as the former fifth-round pick has helped to stuff the run all season. The Texans have only given up 88.2 rushing yards per game so far, with just four teams besting them (Saints 77.6, Bears 83.2, Cowboys 86.8 and Ravens 87.8).
Whilst the defensive line causes problems for other teams, the Texans secondary can often cause problems for themselves. Although they rank eighth in interceptions (13) and second in touchdowns from interceptions (3), they have real issues when it comes to defending the deep pass. In the last two games alone, Baker Mayfield and Andrew Luck have thrown for a combined 750 yards - including 11 completions of 21 yards or more.
Despite the Texans secondary being inconsistent, when they're playing well, nobody can get past them. Safety Tyrann Mathieu, also known as "The Honey Badger" is one of the hardest-hitting players in the league, despite his size. He leads the team with 65 total tackles plus he's added two interceptions and three sacks along the way. Rookie Justin Reid is another player who's beginning to come out of his shell and has had three interceptions this season, including a 101-yard pick-six against the Washington Redskins.
Let's finally move onto Deshaun Watson and the Texans offense. Throughout college, Watson led the Clemson Tigers to the National Championship game twice, winning on one occasion. After he was injured last year when the Texans had a 3-4 record, they only managed to win one more game in the season. However, with the Texans looking certain to make the playoffs and Watson being healthy, it asks a massive question; Can Watson use his experience of playing in big games at college to guide the Texans to their first Super Bowl in franchise history?
The 23-year-old has thrown for 3,298 yards and 22 touchdowns so far this season. He has also thrown just nine interceptions, with seven of them coming in the first six weeks of the season. Watson also set a franchise record against the Colts, as he became the first Texan to throw for a touchdown in 18 straight games.
Most quarterbacks would be in a lot of trouble if they didn't have a star receiver making plays down the field. That's where DeAndre Hopkins comes in. Currently in the second year of a five-year $81m contract, Hopkins is having yet another stellar season. The 26-year-old has 84 receptions (12th) for 1,151 yards (ninth) and nine touchdowns (sixth).
Hopkins boasts arguably the best pair of hands in the NFL and is still yet to drop a pass this season, according to Pro Football Focus. He has a massive catch radius and any pass thrown in his general direction has a chance at being a completion. Couple this with his toe-tapping ability that rivals Antonio Brown and you have one of the best wide receivers in the league.
However, there are potential problems on the offensive line. They have allowed Watson to be hit 96 times this season, the third most in the NFL. He's also been sacked 46 times, which is the second most in the league.
This is where their running game comes into play. Thanks to Lamar Miller, Alfred Blue and Watson's scrambling ability, the offensive line has been given a break. Between the trio, they've accounted for 1,786 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. Plus, the return of second year running back D'Onta Foreman could help down the stretch.
Even if the Texans aren't able to go all of the way to the Super Bowl this season, their current model is one that's built for success. They have a franchise built up of mainly young players and if they're able to extend the contracts of Mathieu and Clowney in the offseason, it'll be a major boost. The Texans also have more than enough spare salary cap room to delve into the free agency market to pick up some offensive line help.
General manager Brian Gaine and head coach Bill O'Brien are onto something special in Houston. Watch this space.
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