FOR THE WIN

4 NFL playoff teams that won't return in 2018

Steven Ruiz
USATODAY

We know a handful of teams that made the playoffs in 2017 won't be back in 2018. It happens every season. In fact, every year since 2006, at least four teams that made the playoffs the previous season failed to make it back the following year. So which four teams will it be in 2018? Here are our best guesses, starting with the team MOST LIKELY TO RETURN to the postseason…

1. Jacksonville Jaguars

(AP Photo/Don Wright)

As good as the Jaguars looked in last year's playoffs, this wasn't exactly a world beating machine in 2017. In fact, had a wacky ending to their game against the Chargers gone the other way (as it probably should have), Jacksonville would have had to beat out the Bills and Ravens on a tie-breaker for the last playoff spot. And that was with the league's easiest schedule, per Football Outsiders, and one of the healthiest rosters in the league.

Jacksonville's slate won't be nearly as easy in 2018. Not if Andrew Luck and Deshaun Watson are behind center in Indianapolis and Houston. And not with Mike Mularkey no longer around to drag the Titans' talented roster down.

The Jaguars have enough talent to not only make the playoffs but also win the Super Bowl, but let's say the team catches a few unlucky breaks: a key defensive player or two get hurt, Blake Bortles doesn't develop, the AFC South is better all around. All of that is possible and could leave the Jags on the outside looking in next January.

2. Carolina Panthers

Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Playing against one of the league's hardest schedules, the Panthers managed to win 11 games, but it did require a tremendous amount of late-game luck. Carolina went a ridiculous 8-1 in games decided by a possession, which is unsustainable. With a point-differential of plus-36, this was a 9-7 team masquerading as an 11-5 team.

As much has been made about the Panther putting more around Cam Newton this offseason, it isn't a given that this offense will be any better. Matt Kalil is back at left tackle (that's not a good thing) and All-Pro guard Andrew Norwell left for Jacksonville's money. New receiver Torrey Smith hasn't been good in two years. D.J. Moore will have to buck the trend of receivers taken late in the first round struggling mightily if he's going to be of any help in 2018. Greg Olsen isn't getting any younger, and are we really confident that Norv Turner will get the most out of Christian McCaffrey? It might be Newton against the World once again in 2018.

On the other side of the ball, the secondary won't much much better (if at all), Julius Peppers is still the team's most productive edge rusher and Thomas Davis is suspended for four games. If Luke Kuechly's concussion problems are an issue again, the defense, which also lost its coordinator Steve Wilks this offseason, could nosedive.

As long as Newton is behind center, the Panthers have a chance to make the playoffs, but the team can't ask any more of its franchise quarterback if that's going to happen.

3. Kansas City Chiefs

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Alex Smith was never going to take the Chiefs where they wanted to go. Patrick Mahomes looks like he could develop into that quarterback but it wasn't going to happen with him spending another season on the bench watching Smith dink-and-dunk his way to 10 wins and an early postseason exit.

For those reasons, moving on from Smith was 100% the correct move for Kansas City. That doesn't mean it will make the Chiefs a better football team in 2018. They are going from one of the smarter QBs in the league to one with only a year of experience in a pro-style offense. So even if the Chiefs offense is more stacked on paper after the acquisition of Sammy Watkins, it's unlikely that this offense produces at the level it did a year ago.

The defense, which wasn't very good a year ago, lost Marcus Peters and Derrick Johnson and is banking on Eric Berry returning to full strength after suffering a tear of his Achilles. That's no sure thing. As bad as the defense was in 2017, it could be worse in 2018.

Andy Reid is too good of a coach to completely count out, and it wouldn't be a shock to see Kansas City playing in January; but it looks like the team will take a step back this season in order to take leap forward in the future. Not a bad trade-off.

4. Buffalo Bills

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

This shouldn't need much of an explanation. The Bills were one of only two teams to make the postseason with a negative point-differential, and the roster looks significantly worse on paper after the offseason.

Also, this is not a good sign…

No matter who wins the Josh Allen-Nathan Peterman-AJ McCarron quarterback battle from hell, the Bills passing game will be a mess. The offensive line was picked apart in the offseason and the receiving corps leaves plenty to be desired. It's going to be all LeSean McCoy on offense in Buffalo.

The defense, which played so well early in 2017, fell off a cliff in the second half and doesn't look any better heading into the next season. Forget about the playoffs, this team could be one of the worst in the league in 2018.

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