Steve Serby

Steve Serby

NFL

A lot of ‘Jake Lockers’: This QB draft class is dividing NFL experts

There will be a feeding frenzy at the top of Thursday night’s NFL draft, where desperation rushes the passer, where hyperventilating franchises sack the franchise quarterback of their dreams and begin a better and brighter future just like that.

All is right with the world when a JaMarcus Russell or a Tim Couch or a Ryan Leaf walks across the stage with a big smile and hugs the commish and poses with his new hat and jersey, but years later the same decision-makers are desperately seeking a new franchise quarterback — if they still have a job.

The ultimate payoff is an eventual Super Bowl contender. The ultimate nightmare is quarterback hell.

This is risky business, where beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and one of these beholders on Thursday night (Browns GM John Dorsey?) will gaze at Josh Allen and see John Elway, another will look longingly at Baker Mayfield and see Drew Brees or Russell Wilson.

Even the storied Quarterback Class of 1983, which saw six quarterbacks drafted in the first round and sent three — Elway, Jim Kelly and Dan Marino — to the Hall of Fame, was not infallible to a personnel pick-six: Todd Blackledge, selected seventh by the Chiefs, reminded no one of Len Dawson, and Tony Eason, chosen 15th by the Patriots, tossed 61 touchdown passes over seven seasons in New England.

The Quarterback Class of 2018 won’t remind anyone of that class, or the Class of 2004 — which gave us Eli Manning as the first overall pick, Philip Rivers as the fourth and Ben Roethlisberger as the 11th.

It is better than the Class of 2002: David Carr (1), Joey Harrington (3) and Patrick Ramsey (32); and Class of 2007: Russell (1) and Brady Quinn (22); and probably the Class of 2011: Cam Newton (1), Jake Locker (8), Blaine Gabbert (10) and Christian Ponder (12) — even if none of them come armed with Newton’s physical gifts.

“It’s probably the highest risk-reward quarterback class of the last decade,” Optimum Scouting owner Eric Galko said.

NDT Scouting’s Joe Marino falls on the reward side.

“It’s unusually deep at the top,” Marino said. “We’ve got a couple of seniors that helped with that, and all of the juniors that we thought would come out did, and so overall we have a really good crop.”

As many as six quarterbacks could be drafted in the first round, and four of the Class of 2018 could go in the top five.

“I think it’s above average, but not sensational,” Gil Brandt said.

A tweet from former Giants quarterback Danny Kanell: “I see more Jake Lockers in this draft than Carson Wentz … but that won’t stop teams from reaching for QBs in the top 10. I truly don’t understand the you-have-to-draft-a-QB philosophy.”

ESPN’s Todd McShay is the most bullish on the Class of 2018.

“I had never graded four quarterbacks with actual first-round grades,” McShay said this week. “To me, this is one of the best classes that I’ve ever evaluated from a talent standpoint when you’re talking about the top of the draft.”

There is USC’s Sam Darnold, who some believe is the best prospect; there is Wyoming’s Allen, the strong-armed project and prototype; there is Oklahoma’s Mayfield, the combative 6-0 ¹/₂ gladiator; there is UCLA’s Josh Rosen, the most polished, cerebral and irreverent; and there is Lamar Jackson, who will also need time and a system built for his breathtaking athleticism. The possible sixth is Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph.

“I would say it’s a very average group when you get past the first five,” McShay said.

NFL Network’s Mike Mayock doesn’t rate any of them with Andrew Luck or Carson Wentz. Darnold is his favorite of the current group.

“I don’t see anybody in this class that I get the same gut feel for as those two,” Mayock said. “History tells you we’ll be lucky if we get 2-3 that become franchise quarterbacks.”

There are enough quarterback busts littered across the NFL graveyard and cautionary tales that too often go ignored.

To wit: of the 54 quarterbacks drafted in the first round since 1998, just five (Peyton and Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco) have won a Super Bowl. Of the 33 quarterbacks drafted in the top 10, just two (Peyton and Eli) have won a Super Bowl.

Then there is the flip side:

“When the Houston Texans had Deshaun Watson, they averaged 35 points a game. … When they didn’t, they averaged 13,” Mayock said. “When the San Francisco 49ers had Jimmy Garoppolo, they went 5-0, and they averaged 29 points a game versus when they didn’t have him, and they averaged 17 points a game.

“The franchise quarterback conversation is riveting, especially when you kind of look at Case Keenum goes to an NFC Championship game … Blake Bortles, although he was a top-10 pick, was not considered a high-level franchise quarterback, he goes to the AFC Championship game. And Nick Foles wins a Super Bowl with the Eagles. Is that an aberration, or a trend?”

Only this much is certain: You better pick the right quarterback.