MIAMI, FLORIDA - OCTOBER 13: Ryan Fitzpatrick #14 of the Miami Dolphins under center during the game ... [+]
The Buffalo Bills haven’t been such big betting favorites going into a game since 1992.
The Buffalo Bills (4-1) have been installed as 17-point favorites against the winless (0-5) Miami Dolphins at New Era Field on Sunday as the Dolphins start Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback in place of Josh Rosen.
This is the largest positive point spread they have enjoyed since they were 17-point favorites back on Dec. 6, 1992 at home against the New York Jets. It was their third Super Bowl season.
But the Bills know the odds can be upended, and they are proof of that. Look at what happened last year.
After having started with back-to-back one-sided losses to the Baltimore Ravens and the Los Angeles Chargers, they went into Minnesota as a 16.5-point underdog, and the Bills stunned the football world with a 27-6 victory over the Vikings.
Such betting odds might suggest the Dolphins are a good bet to cover this week. But think again.
Look at the games the Dolphins have failed to cover:
- In Week 1, they were seven-point underdogs at home to the Baltimore Ravens and lost by 59-10.
- In Week 2, they were plus-18 against the New England Patriots at home, but the Patriots rolled to a 43-0 victory.
- In Week 3, the Dolphins were plus-22 at the Dallas Cowboys and lost 31-6.
- In Week 4, they were plus-15 against the Los Angeles Chargers and lost 30-10.
In Week 5, they did cover as six-point underdogs at home to the Washington Redskins as they lost 17-16.
Why are the Bills such overwhelming favorites? Well, it’s not only their 4-1 record, but it’s also the fact they are coming off a bye week. They’ve had a week of rest and a full week to prepare for the Dolphins.
The Bills are also coming off a confidence-boosting victory over the Tennessee Titans on the road when QB Josh Allen had a good bounce-back game after suffering a concussion the week before in the loss to the Patriots.
When looking at their 4-1 record, it’s important to remember, however, the level of competition they have beaten.
In Week 1 the Bills played the New York Jets, who are 1-4 right now. In week 2 they beat the New York Giants, who are currently at 2-4. Week 3 was against the 0-6 Cincinnati Bengals.
Then there is the upheaval going on in Miami. Coach Brian Flores has declared that Fitzpatrick will start this Sunday in place of Rosen. This has been a curious about-face for Flores.
Last week, Flores benched Rosen during the second half of the 17-16 loss to the Redskins. After the loss, Flores declared that he was sticking with Rosen as his starter.
Rosen, the 10th overall pick in the 2018 draft by the Arizona Cardinals, was traded to the Dolphins this offseason. He’s had a rocky start to his NFL career, completing only 52.3% of his passes. He has thrown only one TD pass while tossing five interceptions.
Fitzpatrick was effective in relief of Rosen last week, going 12/18 for 132 yards while leading the Dolphins on two late scoring drives and the Dolphins players said they felt a different energy with Fitzpatrick under center.
Fitzpatrick is also 36 years old and has bounced around eight NFL teams in his 15 years, including the four years he spent in Buffalo from 2009 to 2012. But he wasn’t that bad in Buffalo.
In his 53 starts with the Bills over that run, Fitzpatrick completed 59.8% of his passes for 80 touchdowns and 64 interceptions, although the Bills were unable to post a winning record with him at the helm.
Maybe he can find a connection with Preston Williams, who has been Miami’s best wide receiver. Williams is coming off a season low two catches for 31 yards.
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - OCTOBER 06: Jordan Phillips #97 of the Buffalo Bills reacts after making a ... [+]
The Bills will have to prepare for either quarterback on Sunday, considering how many times the Dolphins change their minds about who’s starting.
The other factor to consider is that it appears the Dolphins are tanking so they can secure the No. 1 overall pick in the draft next year and take Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
Another important factor to consider when throwing down a bet is that the Bills haven’t had an explosive offense all season. They have averaged only 18 points a game, which ranks them at No. 25 in the league.
It’s the Buffalo defense that has lived up to all its promise, giving up only 14 points a game, ranking the Bills at No. 4 in the league.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins are scoring an average of only 8.4 points a game and giving up 36 points a game. Those numbers rank them last in both categories.
The Dolphins have scored only three touchdowns in the air and only one on the ground.
The weather should be great in Buffalo on Sunday, with a high of 62 and sunny, so Josh Allen should be able to expand the passing game, especially with wide receiver Duke Williams coming off a great debut against the Titans last week.
